🌐 Emerging Risks in a Volatile World: The Russia–Ukraine War and Beyond

Geopolitical upheavals—including the prolonged Russia–Ukraine conflict—are reshaping risk landscapes across industries, from supply chains and market volatility to cyber threats and environmental disruption. Organizations must adapt to navigate this complexity effectively. 

 

1. Armed Conflict & Global Risk Reordering

• The Russia–Ukraine war remains a top global risk, with twenty-three percent of respondents ranking armed conflict as the greatest concern in the WEF Global Risks 2025 survey (weforum.org, reports.weforum.org). 

• Recent advances in eastern Ukraine signal a stalemate intensifying global uncertainty—and with peace efforts stalled, companies should expect prolonged disruption (ft.com). 

• Broader escalation risks persist, including nuclear brinkmanship—as evidenced by Kremlin and U.S. MAGA aides warning of potential nuclear escalation (theguardian.com). 

 

2. Financial and Commodity Threats

• The war has triggered spikes in commodity markets—wheat and energy prices jumped ~2% amid sanctions and trade restrictions (sciencedirect.com, oecd.org). 

• Global financing conditions are tightening: rising interest rates, yield spread widening, and risks in EMEs are partly attributed to geopolitical pressures (oecd.org). 

• Markets have reacted with safe-haven flows: gold and Swiss franc appreciated, and European defense equities have surged nearly 50% YTD (reuters.com, spglobal.com). 

 

3. Supply Chain Fragility & Fragmentation

• Research indicates ongoing disruptions—from delivery delays to complete production halts—as firms adjust sourcing strategies under geopolitical stress (researchgate.net, linkedin.com). 

• “China + one” approaches are evolving into “China + many,” as companies diversify to maintain resiliency across regions (lazard.com). 

 

4. Cyber-Enabled Hybrid Threats

• The conflict has unwound a wave of cyber warfare—from Russian malware strikes to espionage on aid logistics linked to Ukraine (apnews.com, arxiv.org). 

• Hybrid threats now include underwater cable sabotage in Europe, disinformation campaigns, and “shadow fleet” maritime sabotage—blurring lines between cyber, physical, and informational warfare (en.wikipedia.org, en.wikipedia.org, news.com.au). 

• NATO is responding with upgraded cyber, hybrid-warfare, and infrastructure resilience strategies (wsj.com). 

 

5. Environmental & ESG Repercussions

• The conflict has wrought tremendous environmental damage: soil, air, and water contamination, nuclear risks, and a significant carbon footprint—whose impacts could persist for decades (en.wikipedia.org, en.wikipedia.org, en.wikipedia.org). 

• Climate change is also amplifying security risks: Europe’s power grids, military bases, and migration flows are being strained by drought, floods, and wildfires—driving “conflict risk” (ft.com). 

 

6. Integrating Emerging Risk into Enterprise Strategy

Emerging Risk	Strategic Response
Geopolitical conflict	Integrate scenario planning with AI-enhanced geopolitical forecasting (weforum.org)
Commodity & market volatility	Adopt stress-testing frameworks under sharp rate and price shocks
Supply chain disruption	Map critical nodes; diversify suppliers across regions
Cyber and hybrid threats	Build layered cyber/physical resilience; harden infrastructure
Environmental & ESG damage	Add conflict-related environmental liabilities into risk models

 

🔚 Final Thoughts 

The Russia–Ukraine war is a catalyst for a broader shift in the global risk landscape—bringing to the fore geopolitical, economic, cyber, and environmental vulnerabilities. By embedding advanced scenario planning, supply chain intelligence, and cross-domain resilience, organizations can better navigate these emerging threats. 

Join the discussion: How is your organization incorporating geopolitical and hybrid threats into your risk planning? Have you adopted AI forecasting, supply chain diversification, or infrastructure hardening? Share your experiences below.